Archives for Gold

Oil and Gold Models workshop – Bangkok, 14 November 2011

Oil and Gold Models – An introduction to risk, models and valuation – Bangkok, 14th November, 2011

Welcome to the resource page for attendees of the Wealth Management’s Oil and Gold workshop conducted at the Landmark hotel in Bangkok, Thailand on 14th November 2011 for its clients, partners and well wishers.

The workshop focused…

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Relative Gold Price Model – Forecasting the price of gold

The relative gold price model, presented in MS Excel worksheet format, assesses the relative value of Gold against that of other commodities. It is used to:

Highlight trends in the relationships between gold and a given commodity Identify points when relations broke-down or when a new “normal” was created. This may be due to new drivers influencing one or both commodities.

The data used in the analysis is spot price data for…

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Understanding Crude Oil. A model for dissecting crude oil

Here is the model we used last year to dissect the projected price behavior of oil. This was a fundamentals driven model that examined supply and demand gap, future supply sources and shocks, core demand growth drivers and relative value effects. The same approach was used later this year in building our fundamentals driven model for gold price forecast.

Our summarized outlook was simple. Oil demand…

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