LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 15th – 19th May 2017

4 mins read

Market Analysis

Crude Oil

  • Brent closed at $53.61/bbl, increase by 5.34% from last Friday closing price.
  • Market remained bullish primarily due to news of Saudi Arabia and Russia on extending the production cut by 9 months.
  • As per BHI, US rig count increase by 8 and now stand at 901, with oil rigs standing at 720, increase by 8.
  • 18th consecutive week for oil rig number increase, which means increase in production from US.
  • In our opinion extending production cut may be short lived due to US production increase, market may again expect deeper cut for crude price sustainability.
  • EIA recorded a draw of 1.75 million barrels, a smaller draw. Overall inventories declined for the 6th successive week to the lowest level for 10 weeks.

Natural Gas

  • Henry Hub prices moved south by 4.79% during the week.
  • Price plunged on Tuesday as investor responded to updated mild weather forecast.
  • EIA reported natural gas supplies increased by 65 BCD whereas market was expecting an increase of 61 BCF.
  • Limited demand is expected in US due to mild temperature.
  • European hub gas prices have made marginal gains, however NBP gained 5.79% on strong demand.
  • Germany awarded 870 MW on onshore wind capacity with average price of Euro Cents 5.71/KWH

Currency

  • US dollar face pressure on political news and DXY, The US Dollar Index DXY closed at 97.12, down by 0.78%.
  • Coming week is important for Dollar as political uncertainty still hovering in US.
  • Euro USD soared to $1.119 up by 1.87% from Monday when it closed at $1.098.
  • GBP rose by 0.76% since Monday and closed at $1.301 on Friday.

Weather

  • Spring season in full swing in North America.
  • Asia has entered into summer season, where Indian Subcontinent is ranging between 35o – 40o
  • India will be entering Monsoon by end May 2017.
  • South East Asia and North East Asia around 25o – 30o
  • Summer in Middle East with temperature soaring to high 30o
  • Europe temperature remained mild from 15o-20oC, however cold weather in UK, Norway around 10o-15oC.

LNG

  • LNG prices remain stable around $5.50/MMBTU mark throughout the week in Asian markets of Japan, Korea and Taiwan.
  • Prices in India facing pressure as inventories are high, along with depressed coal prices and arrival of Monsoon season, which will restrict vessel arrival at Dabhol terminal.
  • FOB Singapore remained around $5.30/MMBTU level.
  • US gulf cost prices remain at $4.70/MMBTU level based upon $5.70/MMBTU Asian market prices.
  • Price in North West Europe was offered at discount to NBP UK.
  • Whereas in SW Europe prices remained at low $5.00/MMBTU level corresponding to Hub prices increase, TRS France increased by 13 cents since Monday and MIBGas increase by 17 cents.
  • US-China LNG trade discussion still considered as bargaining tool by China for Middle Eastern suppliers.
  • South Korea new president Moon Jae-in is focused on reducing reliance on coal and nuclear power generation, which constitutes 70% of total power generation.
  • BP will be supplying 16 LNG cargoes annually to PLN from Tangguh project from 2020.
  • Australian GLNG shut a train for a month, the eighth outage in last 14 months.
  • Japan, Korea and Taiwan demand is increasing for summer re-stocking.
  • Gazprom signed MOU with two Chinese companies CNPC and CHG at Belt and road Forum in Beijing focusing on joining effort in gas sector and power generation.
  • China gas consumption increased to 16.9 BCM in April 2017, with first 4 months total consumption at 80.5 BCM, portraying Chinese commitment on climate control
JKM, FOB Singapore & Monthly Japan Spot Des India, FOB ME & DKI SLNG Index
SWE LNG and Hub Based Gas Prices NWE LNG and Hub Based Gas Prices
FOB Gulf Coast, HH and HH Driven LNG

 

LNG Merchant Activity

LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 15th - 19th May 2017

  • This week 40 vessels carrying 2.51 million tons (131.51 BCF) loaded from various supply centres. A decrease by 27% week on week basis.
  • Six vessels carrying 20.97 BCF departed from Nigerian port for European and Indian ports.
  • One vessel left from Equatorial Guinea carrying 3.20 BCF.
  • Pont Fortin, Trinidad & Tobago loaded three vessels with 8.43 BCF.
  • 3 vessels loaded this week from Sabine Pass, USA with 9.88 BCF.
  • Two vessels departed from Russia carrying 5.98 BCF.
  • 10 vessels left from Australian export terminals at Darwin, Dampier and Gladstone ports for Japan, China and Singapore carrying 30.61 BCF.
  • Middle Eastern terminals at Das Island (UAE), Qalhat (Oman) and Ras Lafan (Qatar) loaded 13 vessels carrying 44.37 BCF for Asian destinations.
Departure Date Vessel Name Capacity(CBM) Loading Port Discharge Port ETA Discharge Port
17-May-17 TRINITY ARROW  152,655 Bonny, Nigeria Sagunto, Spain
13-May-17 LNG ABUJA II  170,000 Bonny, Nigeria Hazira, India
14-May-17 GASLOG GLASGOW 232,000 Bonny, Nigeria Indian Ocean 16-Jun-17
16-May-17 PSKOV 170,200 Bonny, Nigeria Bicton Port, Australia 03-Jun-17
17-May-17 LNG ONDO 148,748 Bonny, Nigeria Barcelona, Spain 27-May-17
18-May-17 LNG RIVER ORASHI 142,988 Bonny, Nigeria Not Known
16-May-17 SOLARIS 154,948 Punta Europa, Africa 24-May-17
14-May-17 BW GDF SUEZ EVERETT 138,028 Point Fortin, Trinidad
16-May-17 CASTILLO DE VILLALBA 135,420 Point Fortin, Trinidad Not Known
18-May-17 GALLINA 135,269 Point Fortin, Trinidad
16-May-17 GASLOG SHANGHAI 154,948 Sabine Pass, USA Altamira, Mexico 19-May-17
17-May-17 GOLAR SNOW 160,000 Sabine Pass, USA Not Known
19-May-17 MARAN GAS ALEXANDRIA 164,000 Sabine Pass, USA Atlantic Ocean 14-Jun-17
18-May-17 HANJIN PYEONG TAEK 130,366 Bontang, Indonesia Pyeongtaek, Korea 24-May-17
15-May-17 K.JASMINE 142,961 Prigorodnoye, Russia Okpo, Korea 19-May-17
17-May-17 OB RIVER 146,791 Prigorodnoye, Russia Niagoya, Japan 21-May-17
16-May-17 STENA BLUE SKY 142,988 Dampier, Australia Japan 27-May-17
17-May-17 LNG EBISU 147,546 Dampier, Australia Himeji, Japan 29-May-17
16-May-17 STENA BLUE SKY 142,988 Dampier, Australia Japan 27-May-17
18-May-17 DAPENG SUN 147,200 Dampier, Australia Dafeng, China 25-May-17
19-May-17 NORTHWEST SANDERLING 125,452 Dampier, Australia Pacific Ocean 29-May-17
19-May-17 WOODSIDE ROGERS 159,800 Dampier, Australia Pacific Ocean 30-May-17
15-May-17 GASLOG SYDNEY 154,948 Gladstone, Australia Zhenjiang, China 01-Jun-17
15-May-17 GASLOG SAVANNAH 154,948 Gladstone, Australia 25-May-17
17-May-17 LNG SATURN 153,000 Gladstone, Australia Takamatsu, Japan 26-May-17
19-May-17 LENA RIVER 154,880 Gladstone, Australia Singapore 30-May-17
18-May-17 AAMIRA 260,912 Milford Haven, UK Port Saeed, Egypt
16-May-17 ISH 137,512 Das, UAE Kisarazu, Japan 3-Jun-17
15-May-17 IBRA LNG 145,951 Qalhat, Oman UAE 16-May-17
19-May-17 IBRI LNG 145,173 Qalhat, Oman Japan 02-Jun-17
20-May-17 AL RAYYAN 134,671 Ras Laffan, Qatar UAE 21-May-17
16-May-17 SK SUPREME 136,320 Ras Laffan, Qatar Tyongeong, Korea 31-May-17
16-May-17 LUSAIL  142,808 Ras Laffan, Qatar Rovinj, Croatia 27-May-17
16-May-17 FRAIHA 205,950 Ras Laffan, Qatar Dahej, India 22-May-17
16-May-17 MOZAH 261,988 Ras Laffan, Qatar Europe
17-May-17 MURWAB 205,971 Ras Laffan, Qatar Dahej, India 24-Jun-17
18-May-17 MARAN GAS ASCLEPIUS 142,906 Ras Laffan, Qatar Indian Ocean 21-May-17
18-May-17 AL DAAYEN 148,853 Ras Laffan, Qatar Egypt 26-May-17
18-May-17 AL BIDDA 135,466 Ras Laffan, Qatar Japan 02-Jun-17
19-May-17 UMM AL AMAD 206,958 Ras Laffan, Qatar Hazira, India 22-May-17