4 mins read

Market Analysis

Crude Oil

  • Brent closed at $53.61/bbl, increase by 5.34% from last Friday closing price.
  • Market remained bullish primarily due to news of Saudi Arabia and Russia on extending the production cut by 9 months.
  • As per BHI, US rig count increase by 8 and now stand at 901, with oil rigs standing at 720, increase by 8.
  • 18th consecutive week for oil rig number increase, which means increase in production from US.
  • In our opinion extending production cut may be short lived due to US production increase, market may again expect deeper cut for crude price sustainability.
  • EIA recorded a draw of 1.75 million barrels, a smaller draw. Overall inventories declined for the 6th successive week to the lowest level for 10 weeks.

Natural Gas

  • Henry Hub prices moved south by 4.79% during the week.
  • Price plunged on Tuesday as investor responded to updated mild weather forecast.
  • EIA reported natural gas supplies increased by 65 BCD whereas market was expecting an increase of 61 BCF.
  • Limited demand is expected in US due to mild temperature.
  • European hub gas prices have made marginal gains, however NBP gained 5.79% on strong demand.
  • Germany awarded 870 MW on onshore wind capacity with average price of Euro Cents 5.71/KWH

Currency

  • US dollar face pressure on political news and DXY, The US Dollar Index DXY closed at 97.12, down by 0.78%.
  • Coming week is important for Dollar as political uncertainty still hovering in US.
  • Euro USD soared to $1.119 up by 1.87% from Monday when it closed at $1.098.
  • GBP rose by 0.76% since Monday and closed at $1.301 on Friday.

Weather

  • Spring season in full swing in North America.
  • Asia has entered into summer season, where Indian Subcontinent is ranging between 35o – 40o
  • India will be entering Monsoon by end May 2017.
  • South East Asia and North East Asia around 25o – 30o
  • Summer in Middle East with temperature soaring to high 30o
  • Europe temperature remained mild from 15o-20oC, however cold weather in UK, Norway around 10o-15oC.

LNG

  • LNG prices remain stable around $5.50/MMBTU mark throughout the week in Asian markets of Japan, Korea and Taiwan.
  • Prices in India facing pressure as inventories are high, along with depressed coal prices and arrival of Monsoon season, which will restrict vessel arrival at Dabhol terminal.
  • FOB Singapore remained around $5.30/MMBTU level.
  • US gulf cost prices remain at $4.70/MMBTU level based upon $5.70/MMBTU Asian market prices.
  • Price in North West Europe was offered at discount to NBP UK.
  • Whereas in SW Europe prices remained at low $5.00/MMBTU level corresponding to Hub prices increase, TRS France increased by 13 cents since Monday and MIBGas increase by 17 cents.
  • US-China LNG trade discussion still considered as bargaining tool by China for Middle Eastern suppliers.
  • South Korea new president Moon Jae-in is focused on reducing reliance on coal and nuclear power generation, which constitutes 70% of total power generation.
  • BP will be supplying 16 LNG cargoes annually to PLN from Tangguh project from 2020.
  • Australian GLNG shut a train for a month, the eighth outage in last 14 months.
  • Japan, Korea and Taiwan demand is increasing for summer re-stocking.
  • Gazprom signed MOU with two Chinese companies CNPC and CHG at Belt and road Forum in Beijing focusing on joining effort in gas sector and power generation.
  • China gas consumption increased to 16.9 BCM in April 2017, with first 4 months total consumption at 80.5 BCM, portraying Chinese commitment on climate control
JKM, FOB Singapore & Monthly Japan SpotDes India, FOB ME & DKI SLNG Index
SWE LNG and Hub Based Gas PricesNWE LNG and Hub Based Gas Prices
FOB Gulf Coast, HH and HH Driven LNG

 

LNG Merchant Activity

LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 15th - 19th May 2017

  • This week 40 vessels carrying 2.51 million tons (131.51 BCF) loaded from various supply centres. A decrease by 27% week on week basis.
  • Six vessels carrying 20.97 BCF departed from Nigerian port for European and Indian ports.
  • One vessel left from Equatorial Guinea carrying 3.20 BCF.
  • Pont Fortin, Trinidad & Tobago loaded three vessels with 8.43 BCF.
  • 3 vessels loaded this week from Sabine Pass, USA with 9.88 BCF.
  • Two vessels departed from Russia carrying 5.98 BCF.
  • 10 vessels left from Australian export terminals at Darwin, Dampier and Gladstone ports for Japan, China and Singapore carrying 30.61 BCF.
  • Middle Eastern terminals at Das Island (UAE), Qalhat (Oman) and Ras Lafan (Qatar) loaded 13 vessels carrying 44.37 BCF for Asian destinations.
Departure DateVessel NameCapacity(CBM)Loading PortDischarge PortETA Discharge Port
17-May-17TRINITY ARROW 152,655Bonny, NigeriaSagunto, Spain
13-May-17LNG ABUJA II 170,000Bonny, NigeriaHazira, India
14-May-17GASLOG GLASGOW232,000Bonny, NigeriaIndian Ocean16-Jun-17
16-May-17PSKOV170,200Bonny, NigeriaBicton Port, Australia03-Jun-17
17-May-17LNG ONDO148,748Bonny, NigeriaBarcelona, Spain27-May-17
18-May-17LNG RIVER ORASHI142,988Bonny, NigeriaNot Known
16-May-17SOLARIS154,948Punta Europa, Africa24-May-17
14-May-17BW GDF SUEZ EVERETT138,028Point Fortin, Trinidad
16-May-17CASTILLO DE VILLALBA135,420Point Fortin, TrinidadNot Known
18-May-17GALLINA135,269Point Fortin, Trinidad
16-May-17GASLOG SHANGHAI154,948Sabine Pass, USAAltamira, Mexico19-May-17
17-May-17GOLAR SNOW160,000Sabine Pass, USANot Known
19-May-17MARAN GAS ALEXANDRIA164,000Sabine Pass, USAAtlantic Ocean14-Jun-17
18-May-17HANJIN PYEONG TAEK130,366Bontang, IndonesiaPyeongtaek, Korea24-May-17
15-May-17K.JASMINE142,961Prigorodnoye, RussiaOkpo, Korea19-May-17
17-May-17OB RIVER146,791Prigorodnoye, RussiaNiagoya, Japan21-May-17
16-May-17STENA BLUE SKY142,988Dampier, AustraliaJapan27-May-17
17-May-17LNG EBISU147,546Dampier, AustraliaHimeji, Japan29-May-17
16-May-17STENA BLUE SKY142,988Dampier, AustraliaJapan27-May-17
18-May-17DAPENG SUN147,200Dampier, AustraliaDafeng, China25-May-17
19-May-17NORTHWEST SANDERLING125,452Dampier, AustraliaPacific Ocean29-May-17
19-May-17WOODSIDE ROGERS159,800Dampier, AustraliaPacific Ocean30-May-17
15-May-17GASLOG SYDNEY154,948Gladstone, AustraliaZhenjiang, China01-Jun-17
15-May-17GASLOG SAVANNAH154,948Gladstone, Australia25-May-17
17-May-17LNG SATURN153,000Gladstone, AustraliaTakamatsu, Japan26-May-17
19-May-17LENA RIVER154,880Gladstone, AustraliaSingapore30-May-17
18-May-17AAMIRA260,912Milford Haven, UKPort Saeed, Egypt
16-May-17ISH137,512Das, UAEKisarazu, Japan3-Jun-17
15-May-17IBRA LNG145,951Qalhat, OmanUAE16-May-17
19-May-17IBRI LNG145,173Qalhat, OmanJapan02-Jun-17
20-May-17AL RAYYAN134,671Ras Laffan, QatarUAE21-May-17
16-May-17SK SUPREME136,320Ras Laffan, QatarTyongeong, Korea31-May-17
16-May-17LUSAIL 142,808Ras Laffan, QatarRovinj, Croatia27-May-17
16-May-17FRAIHA205,950Ras Laffan, QatarDahej, India22-May-17
16-May-17MOZAH261,988Ras Laffan, QatarEurope
17-May-17MURWAB205,971Ras Laffan, QatarDahej, India24-Jun-17
18-May-17MARAN GAS ASCLEPIUS142,906Ras Laffan, QatarIndian Ocean21-May-17
18-May-17AL DAAYEN148,853Ras Laffan, QatarEgypt26-May-17
18-May-17AL BIDDA135,466Ras Laffan, QatarJapan02-Jun-17
19-May-17UMM AL AMAD206,958Ras Laffan, QatarHazira, India22-May-17