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LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 15th – 19th May 2017

Market Analysis

Crude Oil

  • Brent closed at $53.61/bbl, increase by 5.34% from last Friday closing price.
  • Market remained bullish primarily due to news of Saudi Arabia and Russia on extending the production cut by 9 months.
  • As per BHI, US rig count increase by 8 and now stand at 901, with oil rigs standing at 720, increase by 8.
  • 18th consecutive week for oil rig number increase, which means increase in production from US.
  • In our opinion extending production cut may be short lived due to US production increase, market may again expect deeper cut for crude price sustainability.
  • EIA recorded a draw of 1.75 million barrels, a smaller draw. Overall inventories declined for the 6th successive week to the lowest level for 10 weeks.

Natural Gas

  • Henry Hub prices moved south by 4.79% during the week.
  • Price plunged on Tuesday as investor responded to updated mild weather forecast.
  • EIA reported natural gas supplies increased by 65 BCD whereas market was expecting an increase of 61 BCF.
  • Limited demand is expected in US due to mild temperature.
  • European hub gas prices have made marginal gains, however NBP gained 5.79% on strong demand.
  • Germany awarded 870 MW on onshore wind capacity with average price of Euro Cents 5.71/KWH

Currency

  • US dollar face pressure on political news and DXY, The US Dollar Index DXY closed at 97.12, down by 0.78%.
  • Coming week is important for Dollar as political uncertainty still hovering in US.
  • Euro USD soared to $1.119 up by 1.87% from Monday when it closed at $1.098.
  • GBP rose by 0.76% since Monday and closed at $1.301 on Friday.

Weather

  • Spring season in full swing in North America.
  • Asia has entered into summer season, where Indian Subcontinent is ranging between 35o – 40o
  • India will be entering Monsoon by end May 2017.
  • South East Asia and North East Asia around 25o – 30o
  • Summer in Middle East with temperature soaring to high 30o
  • Europe temperature remained mild from 15o-20oC, however cold weather in UK, Norway around 10o-15oC.

LNG

  • LNG prices remain stable around $5.50/MMBTU mark throughout the week in Asian markets of Japan, Korea and Taiwan.
  • Prices in India facing pressure as inventories are high, along with depressed coal prices and arrival of Monsoon season, which will restrict vessel arrival at Dabhol terminal.
  • FOB Singapore remained around $5.30/MMBTU level.
  • US gulf cost prices remain at $4.70/MMBTU level based upon $5.70/MMBTU Asian market prices.
  • Price in North West Europe was offered at discount to NBP UK.
  • Whereas in SW Europe prices remained at low $5.00/MMBTU level corresponding to Hub prices increase, TRS France increased by 13 cents since Monday and MIBGas increase by 17 cents.
  • US-China LNG trade discussion still considered as bargaining tool by China for Middle Eastern suppliers.
  • South Korea new president Moon Jae-in is focused on reducing reliance on coal and nuclear power generation, which constitutes 70% of total power generation.
  • BP will be supplying 16 LNG cargoes annually to PLN from Tangguh project from 2020.
  • Australian GLNG shut a train for a month, the eighth outage in last 14 months.
  • Japan, Korea and Taiwan demand is increasing for summer re-stocking.
  • Gazprom signed MOU with two Chinese companies CNPC and CHG at Belt and road Forum in Beijing focusing on joining effort in gas sector and power generation.
  • China gas consumption increased to 16.9 BCM in April 2017, with first 4 months total consumption at 80.5 BCM, portraying Chinese commitment on climate control
JKM, FOB Singapore & Monthly Japan SpotDes India, FOB ME & DKI SLNG Index
SWE LNG and Hub Based Gas PricesNWE LNG and Hub Based Gas Prices
FOB Gulf Coast, HH and HH Driven LNG

 

LNG Merchant Activity

  • This week 40 vessels carrying 2.51 million tons (131.51 BCF) loaded from various supply centres. A decrease by 27% week on week basis.
  • Six vessels carrying 20.97 BCF departed from Nigerian port for European and Indian ports.
  • One vessel left from Equatorial Guinea carrying 3.20 BCF.
  • Pont Fortin, Trinidad & Tobago loaded three vessels with 8.43 BCF.
  • 3 vessels loaded this week from Sabine Pass, USA with 9.88 BCF.
  • Two vessels departed from Russia carrying 5.98 BCF.
  • 10 vessels left from Australian export terminals at Darwin, Dampier and Gladstone ports for Japan, China and Singapore carrying 30.61 BCF.
  • Middle Eastern terminals at Das Island (UAE), Qalhat (Oman) and Ras Lafan (Qatar) loaded 13 vessels carrying 44.37 BCF for Asian destinations.
Departure DateVessel NameCapacity(CBM)Loading PortDischarge PortETA Discharge Port
17-May-17TRINITY ARROW 152,655Bonny, NigeriaSagunto, Spain
13-May-17LNG ABUJA II 170,000Bonny, NigeriaHazira, India
14-May-17GASLOG GLASGOW232,000Bonny, NigeriaIndian Ocean16-Jun-17
16-May-17PSKOV170,200Bonny, NigeriaBicton Port, Australia03-Jun-17
17-May-17LNG ONDO148,748Bonny, NigeriaBarcelona, Spain27-May-17
18-May-17LNG RIVER ORASHI142,988Bonny, NigeriaNot Known
16-May-17SOLARIS154,948Punta Europa, Africa24-May-17
14-May-17BW GDF SUEZ EVERETT138,028Point Fortin, Trinidad
16-May-17CASTILLO DE VILLALBA135,420Point Fortin, TrinidadNot Known
18-May-17GALLINA135,269Point Fortin, Trinidad
16-May-17GASLOG SHANGHAI154,948Sabine Pass, USAAltamira, Mexico19-May-17
17-May-17GOLAR SNOW160,000Sabine Pass, USANot Known
19-May-17MARAN GAS ALEXANDRIA164,000Sabine Pass, USAAtlantic Ocean14-Jun-17
18-May-17HANJIN PYEONG TAEK130,366Bontang, IndonesiaPyeongtaek, Korea24-May-17
15-May-17K.JASMINE142,961Prigorodnoye, RussiaOkpo, Korea19-May-17
17-May-17OB RIVER146,791Prigorodnoye, RussiaNiagoya, Japan21-May-17
16-May-17STENA BLUE SKY142,988Dampier, AustraliaJapan27-May-17
17-May-17LNG EBISU147,546Dampier, AustraliaHimeji, Japan29-May-17
16-May-17STENA BLUE SKY142,988Dampier, AustraliaJapan27-May-17
18-May-17DAPENG SUN147,200Dampier, AustraliaDafeng, China25-May-17
19-May-17NORTHWEST SANDERLING125,452Dampier, AustraliaPacific Ocean29-May-17
19-May-17WOODSIDE ROGERS159,800Dampier, AustraliaPacific Ocean30-May-17
15-May-17GASLOG SYDNEY154,948Gladstone, AustraliaZhenjiang, China01-Jun-17
15-May-17GASLOG SAVANNAH154,948Gladstone, Australia25-May-17
17-May-17LNG SATURN153,000Gladstone, AustraliaTakamatsu, Japan26-May-17
19-May-17LENA RIVER154,880Gladstone, AustraliaSingapore30-May-17
18-May-17AAMIRA260,912Milford Haven, UKPort Saeed, Egypt
16-May-17ISH137,512Das, UAEKisarazu, Japan3-Jun-17
15-May-17IBRA LNG145,951Qalhat, OmanUAE16-May-17
19-May-17IBRI LNG145,173Qalhat, OmanJapan02-Jun-17
20-May-17AL RAYYAN134,671Ras Laffan, QatarUAE21-May-17
16-May-17SK SUPREME136,320Ras Laffan, QatarTyongeong, Korea31-May-17
16-May-17LUSAIL 142,808Ras Laffan, QatarRovinj, Croatia27-May-17
16-May-17FRAIHA205,950Ras Laffan, QatarDahej, India22-May-17
16-May-17MOZAH261,988Ras Laffan, QatarEurope
17-May-17MURWAB205,971Ras Laffan, QatarDahej, India24-Jun-17
18-May-17MARAN GAS ASCLEPIUS142,906Ras Laffan, QatarIndian Ocean21-May-17
18-May-17AL DAAYEN148,853Ras Laffan, QatarEgypt26-May-17
18-May-17AL BIDDA135,466Ras Laffan, QatarJapan02-Jun-17
19-May-17UMM AL AMAD206,958Ras Laffan, QatarHazira, India22-May-17
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