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Market Analysis

Crude Oil

  • Brent started recovering from mid-week & recovered 4.43% from Tuesday price of $48.73/bbl.
  • Brent uptick is primarily due EIA inventory numbers which depicted 5.2 million barrel of commercial inventory decrease and 0.2 million barrels of gasoline.
  • The US inventory draw dawn needs to be monitored closely as last week crude prices were down primarily on technical.
  • AS per BHI, US rig count increase by 8 and now stand at 885.
  • Market expecting OPEC to maintain the oil cut for next six months as this perhaps is the only news, which can sustain oil prices.

Natural Gas

  • Natural gas prices surge by 8.01% this week primarily lower than expected built up of inventories. AS per EIA, working gas inventories is 2,301 BCF on May 5, lower increase than expected increase of 53 BCF.
  • Recent uptick is primarily due to positive sentiments in the market as US and China agreed to bolster trade.
  • Natural gas wholesale prices at European hubs witnessed sharp decrease with more than 4% plunge at NBP, TTF, GPL & TRS.
  • Mild weather has been a major reason for downward price movement in Europe.
  • According to experts, TTF is transforming into more acceptable marker in Europe.

Currency

  • US dollar face pressure on disappointing news on American inflation and retail sales. Right now trading at 1.0909 against Euro, down by 0.44%.
  • Euro depicted strength due to stronger German growth news from 0.4% to 0.6% expansion.
  • GBP took a hit on Thursday due to BOE decision of keeping Interest rate unchanged and downward revision of estimated growth from 2.0% to 1.9%. Trading currently at 1.2882 from 1.2939 at the start of the week.

Weather

  • Spring season in full swing in Europe, North & South America.
  • Middle East and Asia is facing hot temperature.
  • Europe temperature remained mild from 15o-20o
  • Middle East in low 30o C, whereas Indian Subcontinent is facing hot temperature of around 35o
  • North East and South East Asia regions are also entering into summer with mercury ranging between 25o – 30o
  • South America is also witnessing moderate temperature.  
  • Weather outlook is same for coming week, which means additional requirement from Asian markets and subdued interest from Europe.

LNG

  • LNG prices moved south in the markets of Japan, Korea and Taiwan, primarily due to lower demand from Europe and supply abundance. Friday LNG prices were heard at mid $5/MMBTU level.
  • Prices in India also down throughout the week as India is taking advantage of supply glut.
  • Storage tanks are full in India and with monsoon approaching, Dabhol terminal will not be accessible for vessels.
  • Prices in Europe witnessed decrease by 1%, primarily due to mild weather and lower wholesale prices.
  • On the supply side Angola has put one cargo on tender for Mid-May loading, while Nigeria has supply available and closed a tender for May delivery.
  • Indonesia Bontang plant also issued a tender for June and July loading.
  • US and China agreement on trade created excitement in the LNG sector, however US Henry Hub prices are still not workable for Chinese markets.
  • Cheniere Energy already in discussion with Chinese State owned companies for supply of LNG in long term basis. So far Cheniere has sold nine cargoes on spot basis to China.
  • Number of gas discoveries has compelled Egypt to reduce it dependence on imported LNG, with deferring cargoes in 2017 and aim to cut it further to 30 cargoes in 2018.
  • Sinopec has finished building its third LNG terminal, located in the northern Chinese port city of Tianjin. The terminal has the capacity to manage 3 MTPA (400 MMSCFD).
  • Lebanon plans to moor three FSRUs along its coastline.
  • Petronas is focusing on South East region of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh for supply of LNG.
  • Thailand’s PTT plans to expand its LNG import facility by setting up another LNG import terminal with 7.5 MTPA capacity.
  • Overall demand in Asia expect to pickup in coming weeks due to summer demand.
JKM, FOB Singapore & Monthly Japan SpotDes India, FOB ME & DKI SLNG Index
SWE LNG and Hub Based Gas PricesNWE LNG and Hub Based Gas Prices
FOB Gulf Coast, HH and HH Driven LNG

 

LNG Merchant Activity

LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 8th - 12th May 2017

  • This week 52 vessels carrying 3.5 million tons (178.40 BCF) loaded from various ports across the globe.
  • Six vessels carrying 20.74 BCF departed from Nigerian port for European and Asian destinations.
  • One vessel left from Equatorial Guinea carrying 2.99 BCF.
  • Pont Fortin, Trinidad & Tobago loaded two vessels with 5.65 BCF.
  • 3 vessels loaded this week from Sabine Pass, USA.
  • Two vessels departed from Russia carrying 6.07 BCF.
  • 12 vessels left from Australian export terminals at Darwin, Dampier and Gladstone ports for Japan, China and Singapore carrying 39.14 BCF.
  • Middle Eastern terminals at Das Island (UAE), Qalhat (Oman) and Ras Lafan (Qatar) loaded 21 vessels carrying 73.73 BCF for Asian destinations.
  • 18 BCF loaded onto 3 vessels from Indonesia.
Departure DateVessel NameCapacity(CBM)Loading PortDischarge PortETA Discharge Port
8-May-17LNG BAYELSA 137,500Bonny, NigeriaEurope22-May-17
8-May-17METHANE JANE ELIZABETH 145,000Bonny, NigeriaManzanillo, Cuba27-May-17
7-May-17RIOJA KNUTSEN 176,300Bonny, NigeriaNot Known29-May-17
10-May-17LNG BONNY II177,000Bonny, NigeriaMontoir, France30-May-17
12-May-17LNG RIVERS137,500Bonny, NigeriaAsa, Japan05-Jun-17
12-May-17GASLOG GLASGOW232,000Bonny, NigeriaNot Known
9-May-17METHANE LYDON VOLNEY145,000Punta Europe, Equ. GuineaNot Known07-Jun-17
9-May-17CATALUNYA SPIRIT135,423Point Fortin, TrinidadEscobar, Argentina21-May-17
12-May-17BRITISH TRADER138,248Point Fortin, TrinidadNot Known
6-May-17MAGELLAN SPIRIT163,194Sabine Pass, USANot Known
9-May-17MARAN GAS AMPHIPOLIS173,400Sabine Pass, USANot Known
12-May-17GASLOG CHELSEA153,000Sabine Pass, USAAtlantic Basin16-May-17
8-May-17GOLAR MAZO 135,000Bontang, IndonesiaNot Known23-May-17
9-May-17SENSHU MARU125,835Bontang, IndonesiaWithin Indonesia
10-May-17SK SPLENDOR135,540MIBGas LNG, IndonesiaTyongeong, Korea16-May-17
9-May-17ENERGY NAVIGATOR147,558Prigorodnoye, RussiaIshikari, Japan13-May-17
12-May-17CLEAN ENERGY146,794Prigorodnoye, RussiaNot Known
7-May-17METHANE MICKIE HARPER 167,400Dampier, AustraliaNot Known25-May-17
9-May-17ENERGY FRONTIER144,596Dampier, AustraliaNagoya, Japan19-May-17
11-May-17WOODSIDE CHANEY174,000Dampier, AustraliaPacific Ocean21-May-17
12-May-17WOODSIDE DONALDSON162,620Dampier, AustraliaIncheon, Korea23-May-17
11-May-17WOODSIDE CHANEY174,000Dampier, AustraliaPacific Ocean21-May-17
7-May-17ALTO ACRUX147,978Darwin, AustraliaKisarazu, Japan17-May-17
8-May-17GASLOG SANTIAGO154,948Gladstone, AustraliaZhuhai, China18-May-17
8-May-17CLEAN PLANET162,000Gladstone, AustraliaTianjin, China20-May-17
7-May-17YK SOVEREIGN124,582Gladstone, AustraliaPyeongtaek, Korea18-May-17
10-May-17CESI GLADSTONE174,000Gladstone, AustraliaQindago, China19-May-17
10-May-17HYUNDAI ECOPIA146,790Gladstone, AustraliaTyongeong, Korea23-May-17
12-May-17MARAN GAS POSIDONIA164,000Gladstone, Australia22-May-17
9-May-17MERIDIAN SPIRIT163,285Melkoya, NorwayDunkirk, France13-May-17
10-May-17ARCTIC PRINCESS147,835Melkoya, NorwayKlaiPeda, Lithuania16-May-17
10-May-17UMM SLAL260,928Milford Haven, UKTENERIFE, Spain14-May-17
9-May-17SHAHAMAH137,756Das Island, UAEKawasaki, Japan25-May-17
12-May-17HYUNDAI OCEANPIA134,300Qalhat, OmanTyongeong, Korea21-May-17
8-May-17DISHA136,026Ras Laffan, QatarDahej, India11-May-17
8-May-17AL ZUBARAH135,510Ras Laffan, QatarYokkaichi, Japan25-May-17
7-May-17MILAHA QATAR145410Ras Laffan, QatarEgypt14-May-17
7-May-17BU SAMRA260,928Ras Laffan, QatarWestern Europe
7-May-17DUHAIL210100Ras Laffan, QatarEgypt14-May-17
8-May-17MARAN GAS MYSTRAS159,800Ras Laffan, QatarNot Known
7-May-17ZEKREET178,200Ras Laffan, QatarYokkaichi, Japan23-May-17
7-May-17HYUNDAI TECHNOPIA134,524Ras Laffan, QatarIncheon, Korea22-May-17
6-May-17TAITAR NO.3144,627Ras Laffan, QatarTachung, Taiwan19-May-17
9-May-17AL NUAMAN205,981Ras Laffan, QatarFreest, Germany
9-May-17AL ZUBARAH135,510Ras Laffan, QatarYokkaichi, Japan25-May-17
10-May-17AL SAHLA211,842Ras Laffan, QatarDahej, India13-May-17
10-May-17AL JASSASIYA142,988Ras Laffan, QatarNot Known23-May-17
11-May-17AL GHARIYA205,941Ras Laffan, QatarTokyo, Japan30-May-17
11-May-17AL SAFLIYA210,100Ras Laffan, QatarNot Known
12-May-17UMM BAB143,708Ras Laffan, QatarNot Known16-May-17
12-May-17AL MAYEDA261,157Ras Laffan, QatarNot Known
12-May-17BROOG136,359Ras Laffan, QatarNot Known