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LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 8th – 12th May 2017

Market Analysis

Crude Oil

  • Brent started recovering from mid-week & recovered 4.43% from Tuesday price of $48.73/bbl.
  • Brent uptick is primarily due EIA inventory numbers which depicted 5.2 million barrel of commercial inventory decrease and 0.2 million barrels of gasoline.
  • The US inventory draw dawn needs to be monitored closely as last week crude prices were down primarily on technical.
  • AS per BHI, US rig count increase by 8 and now stand at 885.
  • Market expecting OPEC to maintain the oil cut for next six months as this perhaps is the only news, which can sustain oil prices.

Natural Gas

  • Natural gas prices surge by 8.01% this week primarily lower than expected built up of inventories. AS per EIA, working gas inventories is 2,301 BCF on May 5, lower increase than expected increase of 53 BCF.
  • Recent uptick is primarily due to positive sentiments in the market as US and China agreed to bolster trade.
  • Natural gas wholesale prices at European hubs witnessed sharp decrease with more than 4% plunge at NBP, TTF, GPL & TRS.
  • Mild weather has been a major reason for downward price movement in Europe.
  • According to experts, TTF is transforming into more acceptable marker in Europe.

Currency

  • US dollar face pressure on disappointing news on American inflation and retail sales. Right now trading at 1.0909 against Euro, down by 0.44%.
  • Euro depicted strength due to stronger German growth news from 0.4% to 0.6% expansion.
  • GBP took a hit on Thursday due to BOE decision of keeping Interest rate unchanged and downward revision of estimated growth from 2.0% to 1.9%. Trading currently at 1.2882 from 1.2939 at the start of the week.

Weather

  • Spring season in full swing in Europe, North & South America.
  • Middle East and Asia is facing hot temperature.
  • Europe temperature remained mild from 15o-20o
  • Middle East in low 30o C, whereas Indian Subcontinent is facing hot temperature of around 35o
  • North East and South East Asia regions are also entering into summer with mercury ranging between 25o – 30o
  • South America is also witnessing moderate temperature.  
  • Weather outlook is same for coming week, which means additional requirement from Asian markets and subdued interest from Europe.

LNG

  • LNG prices moved south in the markets of Japan, Korea and Taiwan, primarily due to lower demand from Europe and supply abundance. Friday LNG prices were heard at mid $5/MMBTU level.
  • Prices in India also down throughout the week as India is taking advantage of supply glut.
  • Storage tanks are full in India and with monsoon approaching, Dabhol terminal will not be accessible for vessels.
  • Prices in Europe witnessed decrease by 1%, primarily due to mild weather and lower wholesale prices.
  • On the supply side Angola has put one cargo on tender for Mid-May loading, while Nigeria has supply available and closed a tender for May delivery.
  • Indonesia Bontang plant also issued a tender for June and July loading.
  • US and China agreement on trade created excitement in the LNG sector, however US Henry Hub prices are still not workable for Chinese markets.
  • Cheniere Energy already in discussion with Chinese State owned companies for supply of LNG in long term basis. So far Cheniere has sold nine cargoes on spot basis to China.
  • Number of gas discoveries has compelled Egypt to reduce it dependence on imported LNG, with deferring cargoes in 2017 and aim to cut it further to 30 cargoes in 2018.
  • Sinopec has finished building its third LNG terminal, located in the northern Chinese port city of Tianjin. The terminal has the capacity to manage 3 MTPA (400 MMSCFD).
  • Lebanon plans to moor three FSRUs along its coastline.
  • Petronas is focusing on South East region of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh for supply of LNG.
  • Thailand’s PTT plans to expand its LNG import facility by setting up another LNG import terminal with 7.5 MTPA capacity.
  • Overall demand in Asia expect to pickup in coming weeks due to summer demand.
JKM, FOB Singapore & Monthly Japan SpotDes India, FOB ME & DKI SLNG Index
SWE LNG and Hub Based Gas PricesNWE LNG and Hub Based Gas Prices
FOB Gulf Coast, HH and HH Driven LNG

 

LNG Merchant Activity

  • This week 52 vessels carrying 3.5 million tons (178.40 BCF) loaded from various ports across the globe.
  • Six vessels carrying 20.74 BCF departed from Nigerian port for European and Asian destinations.
  • One vessel left from Equatorial Guinea carrying 2.99 BCF.
  • Pont Fortin, Trinidad & Tobago loaded two vessels with 5.65 BCF.
  • 3 vessels loaded this week from Sabine Pass, USA.
  • Two vessels departed from Russia carrying 6.07 BCF.
  • 12 vessels left from Australian export terminals at Darwin, Dampier and Gladstone ports for Japan, China and Singapore carrying 39.14 BCF.
  • Middle Eastern terminals at Das Island (UAE), Qalhat (Oman) and Ras Lafan (Qatar) loaded 21 vessels carrying 73.73 BCF for Asian destinations.
  • 18 BCF loaded onto 3 vessels from Indonesia.
Departure DateVessel NameCapacity(CBM)Loading PortDischarge PortETA Discharge Port
8-May-17LNG BAYELSA 137,500Bonny, NigeriaEurope22-May-17
8-May-17METHANE JANE ELIZABETH 145,000Bonny, NigeriaManzanillo, Cuba27-May-17
7-May-17RIOJA KNUTSEN 176,300Bonny, NigeriaNot Known29-May-17
10-May-17LNG BONNY II177,000Bonny, NigeriaMontoir, France30-May-17
12-May-17LNG RIVERS137,500Bonny, NigeriaAsa, Japan05-Jun-17
12-May-17GASLOG GLASGOW232,000Bonny, NigeriaNot Known
9-May-17METHANE LYDON VOLNEY145,000Punta Europe, Equ. GuineaNot Known07-Jun-17
9-May-17CATALUNYA SPIRIT135,423Point Fortin, TrinidadEscobar, Argentina21-May-17
12-May-17BRITISH TRADER138,248Point Fortin, TrinidadNot Known
6-May-17MAGELLAN SPIRIT163,194Sabine Pass, USANot Known
9-May-17MARAN GAS AMPHIPOLIS173,400Sabine Pass, USANot Known
12-May-17GASLOG CHELSEA153,000Sabine Pass, USAAtlantic Basin16-May-17
8-May-17GOLAR MAZO 135,000Bontang, IndonesiaNot Known23-May-17
9-May-17SENSHU MARU125,835Bontang, IndonesiaWithin Indonesia
10-May-17SK SPLENDOR135,540MIBGas LNG, IndonesiaTyongeong, Korea16-May-17
9-May-17ENERGY NAVIGATOR147,558Prigorodnoye, RussiaIshikari, Japan13-May-17
12-May-17CLEAN ENERGY146,794Prigorodnoye, RussiaNot Known
7-May-17METHANE MICKIE HARPER 167,400Dampier, AustraliaNot Known25-May-17
9-May-17ENERGY FRONTIER144,596Dampier, AustraliaNagoya, Japan19-May-17
11-May-17WOODSIDE CHANEY174,000Dampier, AustraliaPacific Ocean21-May-17
12-May-17WOODSIDE DONALDSON162,620Dampier, AustraliaIncheon, Korea23-May-17
11-May-17WOODSIDE CHANEY174,000Dampier, AustraliaPacific Ocean21-May-17
7-May-17ALTO ACRUX147,978Darwin, AustraliaKisarazu, Japan17-May-17
8-May-17GASLOG SANTIAGO154,948Gladstone, AustraliaZhuhai, China18-May-17
8-May-17CLEAN PLANET162,000Gladstone, AustraliaTianjin, China20-May-17
7-May-17YK SOVEREIGN124,582Gladstone, AustraliaPyeongtaek, Korea18-May-17
10-May-17CESI GLADSTONE174,000Gladstone, AustraliaQindago, China19-May-17
10-May-17HYUNDAI ECOPIA146,790Gladstone, AustraliaTyongeong, Korea23-May-17
12-May-17MARAN GAS POSIDONIA164,000Gladstone, Australia22-May-17
9-May-17MERIDIAN SPIRIT163,285Melkoya, NorwayDunkirk, France13-May-17
10-May-17ARCTIC PRINCESS147,835Melkoya, NorwayKlaiPeda, Lithuania16-May-17
10-May-17UMM SLAL260,928Milford Haven, UKTENERIFE, Spain14-May-17
9-May-17SHAHAMAH137,756Das Island, UAEKawasaki, Japan25-May-17
12-May-17HYUNDAI OCEANPIA134,300Qalhat, OmanTyongeong, Korea21-May-17
8-May-17DISHA136,026Ras Laffan, QatarDahej, India11-May-17
8-May-17AL ZUBARAH135,510Ras Laffan, QatarYokkaichi, Japan25-May-17
7-May-17MILAHA QATAR145410Ras Laffan, QatarEgypt14-May-17
7-May-17BU SAMRA260,928Ras Laffan, QatarWestern Europe
7-May-17DUHAIL210100Ras Laffan, QatarEgypt14-May-17
8-May-17MARAN GAS MYSTRAS159,800Ras Laffan, QatarNot Known
7-May-17ZEKREET178,200Ras Laffan, QatarYokkaichi, Japan23-May-17
7-May-17HYUNDAI TECHNOPIA134,524Ras Laffan, QatarIncheon, Korea22-May-17
6-May-17TAITAR NO.3144,627Ras Laffan, QatarTachung, Taiwan19-May-17
9-May-17AL NUAMAN205,981Ras Laffan, QatarFreest, Germany
9-May-17AL ZUBARAH135,510Ras Laffan, QatarYokkaichi, Japan25-May-17
10-May-17AL SAHLA211,842Ras Laffan, QatarDahej, India13-May-17
10-May-17AL JASSASIYA142,988Ras Laffan, QatarNot Known23-May-17
11-May-17AL GHARIYA205,941Ras Laffan, QatarTokyo, Japan30-May-17
11-May-17AL SAFLIYA210,100Ras Laffan, QatarNot Known
12-May-17UMM BAB143,708Ras Laffan, QatarNot Known16-May-17
12-May-17AL MAYEDA261,157Ras Laffan, QatarNot Known
12-May-17BROOG136,359Ras Laffan, QatarNot Known
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