LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 22nd – 26th May 2017

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Market Analysis

Crude Oil

  • Crude Oil started strong primarily on expectation of rumors of further production cut and rallied strongly till 25th May 2017. On Friday Brent was trading at $52.23/BBL decrease by $2.44 from the peak of $54.67/bbl.
  • Profit taking was observed on 24th May 2017 primarily on OPEC production cut along with positive inventory numbers of EIA for the week of 19th May 2017. As per EIA report US crude inventory now at 516.3 million barrel, fell by 4.4 million barrel more than the expected forecast of 2.4 million barrel decline and gasoline also recorded larger than expected draw of 3.15 million barrels following last week draw of 2.4 million barrels.
  • Gasoline prices also up in USA due to Memorial Day holiday.
  • BHI weekly data depicted oil rig increase by 2 and gas rig increase by 5. Overall rig count is 908.
  • Looking at Crude oil inventories and US increased production, OPEC needs to focus on deeper production cut to ensure Crude price to move north. Production cut period extension already absorbed in the market and fundamentally crude remain bearish.

Natural Gas

  • Natural gas prices rebounded on Monday, climbing 2.18% primarily on the forecast of warmer than normal weather covering the entire eastern seaboard of the United States increasing cooling demand however market corrected next day as there were short selling by speculative buyers.
  • EIA reported larger than expected build in natural gas inventories on Thursday with 2,444 BCF of working gas, a net increase of 75 BCF from the previous week.
  • Henry Hub was stable on Friday as outlook for next two weeks is increased demand due to warmer weather across USA.
  • Warm weather in Europe continues to reduce demand, which has resulted in 5.47% decrease in UK NBP, 3.42% at ZTP, TTF down by 2.01% and France witnessed downward movement by 2.00%.
  • Prices in Spain gained by 2.59% primarily due to hot weather and increased demand for air conditioning as this is peak tourist season in Spain

Currency

  • US Dollar remained up and down with DXY index went as low as 96.83 and con Friday was 97.40. The volatility is primarily on political uncertainty due on ongoing FBI investigation.
  • The pound started strong in the beginning of week, however lost ground on Thursday on downward revision of UK Q1 GDP and can fall further. AT the time of writing the report the GBP/USD was 1.28096.
  • Euro has depicted strength throughout the week primarily on news and statement generating from Germany. Monday it was the statement of German Chancellor, which boasted Euro, whereas Tuesday elevated German CPI and news of improved employment data, which is expected at 5.8%. Euro on Friday was trading at 1.1180.

Weather

  • Spring converging into summers in Europe: Spain recorded 30oC, Portugal highest was 24oC , UK 26oC, France 27oC, Germany 25oC, Netherland 24oC & Belgium 25oC during the week and same is forecasted for next week.
  • Mild to hot temperature in South America with Argentina from 18oC -22oC and Brazil 30oC -35oC .
  • Hot summers in in Mexico with temperature ranging 35oC – 39oC .
  • Middle east is now in summer season with Egypt around 35oC degrees, Kuwait City and Dubai temperature around 40oC and rising.
  • Indian Subcontinent also around same temperature profile of low 30o
  • Summer season in North East Asia, with temperature around 30oC in Taiwan, 28oC in Korea, China in high 20oC and Japan is  around 24oC. South East Asia already in hot weather with temperature in low 30oC

LNG

  • North Asian buyers from Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are on the side lines as they have secured their June and July demand.
  • Overall supply seems ample with additional supply in the form of test cargo from Australia’s Wheatstone project is due from June and Cheniere Sabine Pass train 4 expected to start production in September 2017.
  • Sakhalin II is expected to issue a tender next week for July loading whereas Angola LNG issues a tender for end June loading and Nigeria is offering three cargoes for June loading.
  • Inventory levels are high in India, Dabhol port is closed due to monsoon whereas rest of the demand is covered through contractual volumes.
  • Argentina is seeking 16 cargoes for delivery during July and October, whereas market is expecting demand from Korea in August as 10 coal fired power plant are set to shut off next month.
  • European hub gas future market for June, July & August 2017 remained stable primarily due to the summer season. Spain, Italy, and Germany will remain be attractive markets for US, Trinidad and Algerian suppliers.
  • Seven LNG cargoes are currently scheduled to arrive in northwest Europe through the first 10 days of June.
  • Guanghui Energy’s Qidong LNG terminal in Jiangsu province will receive its first cargo on 5 June.
  • GAIL India intends to make Dabhol LNG terminal as all weather import terminal by 2019.
  • Sri Lanka also planning to join the LNG import club, India and Japan will collaborate on setting up  2 MTPA import facility.
  • Sharjah, UAE also entering in LNG import club with Sharjah National Oil Company (SNOC) with Uniper to supply LNG to power stations. The project comprises of setting up a FSRU based import setup at Hamriyah port.
  • Netherland is set to receive its first cargo from US Sabine Pass terminal.
  • Indian GAIL reported to sign a time swap deal with a trader to buy 15 cargoes and sell 10 cargoes from Sabine Pass from 1018.
  • BP has started producing gas from Taurus and Libra fields in West Nile Delta, Egypt. There are five gas fields with production to reach 1.3 BCF/D, which will further reduce Egypt LNG imports.
LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 22nd – 26th May 2017 LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 22nd – 26th May 2017
LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 22nd – 26th May 2017 LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 22nd – 26th May 2017
LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 22nd – 26th May 2017

 

LNG Merchant Activity

LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 22nd – 26th May 2017

  • This week 69 vessels carrying 4.23 million tons (216.00 BCF) loaded from various supply centres. An increase of 84.49 BCF from last week.
  • Seven vessels carrying 21.49 BCF departed from Nigerian port for European locations.
  • Two vessels left from Equatorial Guinea carrying 6.57 BCF.
  • Algeria loaded two vessels for European destinations, whereas one vessel loaded from Angola, total 6.25 BCF.
  • PNG loaded one cargo of 3.00 BCF for Japan.
  • Pont Fortin, Trinidad & Tobago loaded four vessels with11.63 BCF.
  • 3 vessels loaded this week from Sabine Pass, USA with 10.08, one vessel is heading for BCF Netherland.
  • Three vessels loaded from Brunei with total quantity of 9.19 BCF.
  • Two vessels departed from Russia carrying 6.02 BCF.
  • 13 vessels left from Australian export terminals of Dampier and Gladstone ports for Japan, China and Singapore carrying 42.08 BCF.
  • Milford Haven UK, re-exported one cargo to Spain.
  • Middle Eastern terminals at Das Island (UAE), Qalhat (Oman) and Ras Lafan (Qatar) loaded 26 vessels carrying 83.88 BCF for Asian destinations.
Departure Date Vessel Name Capacity(CBM) Loading Port Discharge Port
22-May-17 LNG CROSS RIVER 142,656 Bonny, Nigeria Tenerife, Spain
21-May-17 LNG OYO 142,988 Bonny, Nigeria Bilbao, Spain
21-May-17 GOLAR KELVIN 162,000 Bonny, Nigeria
23-May-17 LNG OYO 142,988 Bonny, Nigeria Bilbao, Spain
24-May-17 LNG LOKOJA 148,471 Bonny, Nigeria Huelva, Spain
26-May-16 LNG RIVER NIGER 142,656 Bonny, Nigeria West Africa
25-May-17 GOLAR PENGUIN 160,000 Bonny, Nigeria Not Known
22-May-17 PACIFIC ARCADIA 145,400 Lese, Papua New Guinea Kawasaki, Japan
22-May-17 VALENCIA KNUTSEN 173,400 Punta Europa Not Known
26-May-16 METHANE ALISON VICTORIA 145,000 Punta Europa Atlantic Basin
24-May-17 GLOBAL ENERGY 74,130 Skikda, Algeria La Speza, Italy
26-May-16 CHEIKH EL MOKRANI 73,990 Skikda, Algeria Sagunto, Spain
23-May-17 SOYO 154,948 Soyo, Angola Not Known
23-May-17 SCF MELAMPUS 170,200 Peru LNG, Peru Not Known
22-May-17 BW GDF SUEZ BOSTON 138,059 Point Fortin, Trinidad Not Known
20-May-17 GALEA 135,269 Point Fortin, Trinidad Not Known
24-May-17 BRITISH EMERALD 154,983 Point Fortin, Trinidad
26-May-16 SESTAO KNUTSEN 135,357 Point Fortin, Trinidad
22-May-17 CLEAN OCEAN 162,000 Sabine Pass, USA Not Known
25-May-17 MARAN GAS APOLLONIA 164,000 Sabine Pass, USA
26-May-16 COOL VOYAGER 160,000 Sabine Pass, USA Atlantic Ocean
25-May-17 SERI ALAM 145,572 Bintulu, Malaysia Not Known
24-May-17 LNG PORTOVENERE 65,272 Bintulu, Malaysia Not Known
24-May-17 SENSHU MARU 125,835 Bontang, Indonesia Oita, Japan
23-May-17 GRAND ANIVA 145,000 Prigorodnoye, Russia Taichung, Taiwan
25-May-17 AMUR RIVER 146,748 Prigorodnoye, Russia
23-May-17 Al Amadi 155,000 Sseria Oil Terminal, Brunei Not Known
25-May-17 Amadi 155,000 Sseria Oil Terminal, Brunei
26-May-16 ABADI 135,269 Sseria Oil Terminal, Brunei Not Known
21-May-17 DAPENG STAR 147,200 Dampier, Australia Dapeng, China
21-May-17 WOODSIDE ROGERS 159,800 Dampier, Australia Pacific Ocean
20-May-17 NORTHWEST SWAN 140,500 Dampier, Australia Mizushima, Japan
23-May-17 TRINITY GLORY 152,675 Dampier, Australia Not Known
25-May-17 PACIFIC ENLIGHTEN 147,800 Dampier, Australia Oita, Japan
24-May-17 NORTHWEST SEAEAGLE 125,541 Dampier, Australia Pacific Ocean
26-May-16 ENERGY HORIZON 177,441 Dampier, Australia Anegasaki, Japan
25-May-17 PACIFIC ENLIGHTEN 147,800 Dampier, Australia Oita, Japan
20-May-17 CESI QINGDAO 205,000 Gladstone, Australia Ningbo, China
23-May-17 METHANE PATRICIA CAMILA 167,416 Gladstone, Australia Tokyo, Japan
23-May-17 PALU LNG 159,800 Gladstone, Australia Pacific Ocean
25-May-17 K.MUGUNGWHA 148,776 Gladstone, Australia Incheon, Korea
25-May-17 MARAN GAS TROY 159,800 Gladstone, Australia Pacific Ocean
26-May-16 BU SAMRA 260,928 Milford Haven, UK Las Palmas, Spain
20-May-17 AL HAMRA 137,000 Das, UAE Not Known
24-May-17 LNG PIONEER 138,000 Das, UAE Not Known
22-May-17 LNG MARS 153,000 Qalhat, Oman Japan
23-May-17 LNG MARS 153,000 Qalhat, Oman Japan
25-May-17 HYUNDAI AQUAPIA 134,400 Qalhat, Oman Pyeongtaek, Korea
22-May-17 SK SUNRISE 135,505 Ras Laffan, Qatar Pyeongtaek, Korea
22-May-17 DUKHAN 137,622 Ras Laffan, Qatar Egypt
22-May-17 AL KHARAITIYAT 211,986 Ras Laffan, Qatar Far East
22-May-17 UMM BAB 143,708 Ras Laffan, Qatar Port Qasim, Pakistan
22-May-17 AL MARROUNA 149,539 Ras Laffan, Qatar Egypt
21-May-17 RAAHI 138,077 Ras Laffan, Qatar Dahej, India
22-May-17 AL SHAMA 147,200 Ras Laffan, Qatar Dubai, UAE
21-May-17 AL HUWAILA 214,716 Ras Laffan, Qatar Chiba, Japan
20-May-17 AL RAYYAN 134,671 Ras Laffan, Qatar Nagoya, Japan
20-May-17 TAITAR NO.1 154,948 Ras Laffan, Qatar Taichung, Taiwan
23-May-17 AL KHOR 135,295 Ras Laffan, Qatar Joetsu, Japan
25-May-17 DISHA 136,026 Ras Laffan, Qatar
25-May-17 AL SAFLIYA 210,100 Ras Laffan, Qatar Mataphut, Thailand
25-May-17 AL ORAIQ 205,994 Ras Laffan, Qatar Indian Ocean
25-May-17 TAITAR NO.2 144,627 Ras Laffan, Qatar Taichung, Taiwan
24-May-17 GOLAR SEAL 160,000 Ras Laffan, Qatar
24-May-17 AL KHOR 135,295 Ras Laffan, Qatar Joetsu, Japan
24-May-17 ASEEM 154,948 Ras Laffan, Qatar Dahej, India
24-May-17 KITA LNG 159,800 Ras Laffan, Qatar Indian Ocean
26-May-16 HYUNDAI COSMOPIA 134,308 Ras Laffan, Qatar Pyeongtaek, Korea
26-May-16 AL SADD 205,963 Ras Laffan, Qatar Far East