LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 29th May – 2nd June 2017

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Market Analysis

Crude Oil

  • Crude oil price close on Friday at $49.95/BBL and decrease by 4.48%.
  • Crude started strong on gasoline stocks and memorial day long weekend and supported further during the week on bullish data of EIA inventories which as strong drawdown of 6.43 million barrel in Crude inventories & 1.7 million barrel on gasoline inventory.
  • However, Wednesday Crude Oil price sank 3% to settle at $50.31/BBL primarily due to increase in Libyan and Nigerian output, as both countries are exempt from production cut. Libyan’s oil production reached to 827,000 BPD now.
  • Further blow to crude prices came from US pulling out from Paris Climate accord and strong oil production from US. As per BHI, the oil rig count rose 733, 11 this week and natural gas increased by 8, which total counts of 916.

Natural Gas

  • Natural Gas in US kept moving north and closed at $3.00/MMBTU, a decrease of 4.76%.
  • The downward movement is initially due to cooler than expected weather forecast across United States.
  • The bearish sentiments got support from weekly EIA natural gas inventories data, which depicted an increase in working gas by 81 BCF from the previous week, highest weekly build up since June 2016.
  • Record amount of natural gas approximately 8.0 BCF from Marcellus and Utica shale is available to US market and further dampening the price sentiments.
  • NBP UK moved downward and closed at the equivalent of $4.79/MMBTU due to weaker demand as temperature forecast is warmer than seasonal normal plus resumption of Norwegian gas supply.
  • Dutch and French prices also moved downward on the same premise of weather forecast along with falling oil prices and healthy supplies from Norwegian and Russian pipeline gas supplies. TTF closed at the equivalent of $4.93/MMBTU and TRS France at $5.20/MMBTU on Friday.

Currency

  • Dollar remained stable to weak during the week and closed on seven month low primarily on data depicting slow US job growth.
  • US economy added 138,000 jobs far lower than the expected number of 185,000 jobd with unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lowest in 16 years.
  • UD DXY was at 96.67 down by 0.55% on Friday.
  • Euro rose to 1.1280, up by 0.30% by Friday evening the increase is primarily bad performance of US $.
  • GBP closed at 1.2887, up by 0.03%, as polls indicated that Conservative Party hold a marginal lead over Labour party ahead of election on June 8.

Weather

  • European weather is remained warmer than seasonal normal and expected to follow the same pattern across Europe for next week.
  • Cooler temperature in Argentina and Brazil, with temperature range for Argentina is 15oC and Brazil around 30oC .
  • Mexico will be around 23 oC-27oC by Friday and expected to remain in the same range during next week.
  • Middle east is now in summer season with Egypt 35oC plus degrees, Kuwait City is between 40oC -45oC, and Dubai temperature around 38oC -41oC .
  • Indian Subcontinent: Pakistan & India around 35oC – 45oC, and will be in the same range next week.
  • Summer season in North East Asia, with temperature around 27oC -32oC in Taiwan, 28oC in Korea, China 25 oC-35oC, and Japan is  around 29oC.
  • South East Asia already in hot weather with temperature in low 30oC.
  • USA Weather:  Overall cold weather with temperature ranging between 25oC-30oC.

LNG

  • Overall LNG market is weak on over supply and subdued demand.
  • Asian LNG price kept lower this week on supply glut specially Gorgon LNG train 1 back online. JKM closed at $5.40/MMBTU.
  • Japanese inventories are full due to mild winter and cargoes are secured to June & July.
  • Overall demand is mostly covered and demand is expected from European region, where prices are high.
  • RWE received it first cargo from Qatar under the long term supply agreement of 1.1 MTPA via Q Flex Al Kharana at GATE Terminal Rotterdam, where RWE has long term contract.
  • Tender for one cargo for mid June loading is issue from Gorgon, whereas supply tenders are still not closed from Angola and Nigeria.
  • European markets specially Spanish market is still offering better netback in comparison with Asian spot markets.
  • European gas hub prices remained stable with NBP UK closed on $4.79/MMBTU, TTF at $4.93/MMBTU after reaching the peak of $5.14/MMBTU and pries remained in high $5.00 level in Spanish market.
  • France and Spain are still better market for US cargoes in term of netbacks in comparison with Asian and NW Europeans markets.
  • At current LNG price level, Nigerian and Angola producers will get better netback than US producer due to freight economics.
  • Spring weather with the expectation of few degrees lower in the coming week will put pressure on European gas prices.
  • Future prices at different European hub remain stable with no interest beyond July contracts, Q3 and winter contracts are getting interest in NBP and TTF.
  • Though not openly but North Easter Asian customers are reviewing long term LNG contract conditions specially from Middle East, this certainly means LNG is maturing into a commodity with much more liquidity.
  • Polish Minister believe that US LNG can reduce dominance on GAZPROM dominance as Poland is ready to receive it first LNG cargo from Cheniere by mid June 2017.
  • MOU has been signed between Indian Gujrat Gas Company and Petronet for gas marketing and LCNG, which means LNG in road tankers to CNG stations.
  • Eni will be developing a floating LNG liquefaction facility with estimated cost of USD 8 billion off the coast of Mozambique, the project will have production capacity of 3.4 MTPA and is expected to commission in 2022.
  • Saudi Arabia also planning to enter into LNG business through considering Yamal LNG and Artic basin in partnership with Russia.
  • Besides China, Japan is also keen in securing LNG cargoes from US through signing agreement during US Energy Secretary visit to Tokyo. Japanese companies are already keen in expanding LNG trade business specially the spot trade.
  • More LNG supply from Australia as Gorgon LNG Train 1 resumed production ahead of time, the train has an outage in Mid May and expected to be online in a month time. Train 1 and 2 has combine production capacity of 10.4 MTPA.
  • Poland has initiated a survey for a pipeline project, which can allow Poland to import 10 BCM of gas from Norway. Poland intend to replace all its gas procurement in 2022, once its long term gas supply deal with Gazprom expires.
LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 29th May - 2nd June 2017 LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 29th May - 2nd June 2017
LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 29th May - 2nd June 2017 LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 29th May - 2nd June 2017
LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 29th May - 2nd June 2017

 

LNG Merchant Activity

LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 29th May - 2nd June 2017

  • This week 99 vessels carrying 61 million tons (183.95 BCF) loaded from various supply centres. An decrease of 0.62 million tons from last week.
  • Six vessels carrying 19.81 BCF departed from Nigerian port for European locations. Four are destined for Spain & France.
  • Algeria loaded one vessel carrying 1.53 BCF for Frances, whereas two vessels for European destinations, whereas one vessel loaded from Angola carrying 4.31 BCF.
  • PNG loaded one vessel, Spirit of Hela, carrying 3.59 BCF for China.
  • Pont Fortin, Trinidad & Tobago loaded two vessels with 5.66 BCF.
  • 3 vessels loaded this week from Sabine Pass, USA with 10.36, one vessel is heading for Sines, Portugal.
  • One vessel loaded from Brunei with load of 3.20 BCF.
  • One vessel departed from Russia carrying 3.01 BCF.
  • 11 vessels left from Australian export terminals of Dampier, Darwin and Gladstone ports for Japan, China and Singapore carrying 35.30 BCF.
  • Middle Eastern terminals at Das Island (UAE) and Ras Lafan (Qatar) loaded 22 vessels carrying 67.76 BCF for Asian destinations. Three vessels destined for Indian ports carrying 10.42 BCF.
Departure Date Vessel Name Capacity (CBM) Loading Port Discharge Port ETA Discharge Port LNG (BCF)
2-Jun-17 BRITISH SAPPHIRE 155,000 Bonny, Nigeria Europe 12-Jun-17  3.20
30-May-17 CORCOVADO LNG 159,800 Bonny, Nigeria Not Known 17-Jun-17  3.30
31-May-17 LNG BORNO 149,600 Bonny, Nigeria Cartagena, Spain 27-Jun-17  3.09
30-May-17 LNG KANO 148,565 Bonny, Nigeria Fos Sur Mer, France  3.07
28-May-17 LNG LAGOS II 177,000 Bonny, Nigeria Montoir, France 17-Jun-17  3.65
27-May-17 LNG PORT HARCOURT II 170,000 Bonny, Nigeria Kuwait City, Kuwait 18-Jun-17  3.51
31-May-17 SPIRIT OF HELA 173,800 Lese, Papua New Guinea Qindago, China 11-Jun-17  3.59
2-Jun-17 METHANE HEATHER SALLY 142,702 Punta Europa Not Known  2.94
30-May-17 GLOBAL ENERGY 74,130 Skikda, Algeria Fos Sur Mer, France 31-May-17  1.53
30-May-17 MARAN GAS PERICLES 209,000 Soyo, Angola Not Known  4.31
30-May-17 HISPANIA SPIRIT 137,814 Pampa Melchorita, Peru Not Known 24-Jun-17  2.84
27-May-17 BRITISH INNOVATOR 136,135 Point Fortin, Trinidad Atlantic Ocean 07-Jun-17  2.81
2-Jun-17 BW GDF SUEZ EVERETT 138,028 Point Fortin, Trinidad Not Known  2.85
2-Jun-17 GASLOG SHANGHAI 154,948 Sabine Pass, USA South America 31-May-17  3.20
30-May-17 RIBERA DEL DUERO KNUTSEN 173,400 Sabine Pass, USA Sines, Portugal 13-Jun-17  3.58
27-May-17 STENA CRYSTAL SKY 173611 Sabine Pass, USA Not Known 28-Jun-17  3.58
30-May-17 HYUNDAI GREENPIA 125000 Bintulu, Malaysia Pyeongtaek, Korea 05-Jun-17  2.58
28-May-17 BELANAK 75,000 Bontang, Indonesia Oita, Japan 06-Jun-17  1.55
28-May-17 DWIPUTRA 127,386 Bontang, Indonesia Oita, Japan 08-Jun-17  2.63
2-Jun-17 EKAPUTRA 1 136,400 Bontang, Indonesia Sakaisenboku, Japan 09-Jun-17  2.81
30-May-17 GOLAR MAZO 135,000 Bontang, Indonesia Not Known 03-Jun-17  2.79
28-May-17 LNG AQUARIUS 126,750 Bontang, Indonesia Indonesia 09-Jun-17  2.61
28-May-17 EXCEL 135,344 MIGAS LNG BATU, Indonesia Chiba, Japan 03-Jun-17  2.79
27-May-17 GRAND MEREYA 145,964 Prigorodnoye, Russia Yumgan, Taiwan 02-Jun-17  3.01
2-Jun-17 AMANI 155,000 Sseria Oil Terminal, Brunei Indian Ocean  3.20
1-Jun-17 ASIA ENDEAVOUR 154,948 Dampier, Australia Not Known  3.20
30-May-17 ENERGY FRONTIER 144,596 Dampier, Australia Shimizu, Japan 08-Jun-17  2.98
27-May-17 STENA CLEAR SKY 173,593 Dampier, Australia Himeji, Japan 06_june-2017  3.58
1-Jun-17 WOODSIDE GOODE 159,800 Dampier, Australia Pacific Ocean 01-Jun-17  3.30
1-Jun-17 ENERGY ADVANCE 144,590 Darwin, Australia Yokohama, Japan 11-Jun-17  2.98
30-May-17 BW PAVILION LEEARA 161,880 Gladstone, Australia Qindago, China 09-Jun-17  3.34
28-May-17 MARAN GAS ROXANA 173,400 Gladstone, Australia Not Known 07-Jun-17  3.58
1-Jun-17 MARAN GAS ULYSSES 174,000 Gladstone, Australia Pacific Ocean 13-Jun-17  3.59
1-Jun-17 SERI BAKTI 149,886 Gladstone, Australia Pacific Ocean 11-Jun-17  3.09
28-May-17 SERI BIJAKSANA 149,822 Gladstone, Australia Malaca, Malaysia 09-Jun-17  3.09
2-Jun-17 YK SOVEREIGN 124582 Gladstone, Australia Tongyeong, Korea 13-Jun-17  2.57
27-May-17 CORAL ENERGY 15,500 Pori, Finland Rotterdam, Netherland 30-May-17  0.32
31-May-17 MRAWEH 135,000 Das, UAE Not Known 19-Jun-17  2.79
27-May-17 MUBARAZ 135,000 Das, UAE West Africa Not Known  2.79
28-May-17 AL DEEBE 142,795 Ras Laffan, Qatar Taichung, Taiwan 12-Jun-17  2.95
27-May-17 AL GHASHAMIYA 211,855 Ras Laffan, Qatar Shuaiba City, Kuwait 29-May-17  4.37
30-May-17 AL JASRA 135,855 Ras Laffan, Qatar Yokkachi, Japan 19-Jun-17  2.80
27-May-17 AL KHARSAAH 211885 Ras Laffan, Qatar Egypt 03-Jun-17  4.37
29-May-17 AL RUWAIS 205,994 Ras Laffan, Qatar Egypt 06-Jun-17  4.25
2-Jun-17 AL THAKHIRA 143,517 Ras Laffan, Qatar Jeddah, KSA 11-Jun-17  2.96
30-May-17 AL UTOURIYA 211,879 Ras Laffan, Qatar Cochin, India 04-Jun-17  4.37
1-Jun-17 AL WAKRAH 134624 Ras Laffan, Qatar Not Known  2.78
2-Jun-17 ASEEM 154,948 Ras Laffan, Qatar Dahej, India 6-Jun-17  3.20
1-Jun-17 DOHA 135,200 Ras Laffan, Qatar Mataphut, Thailand  2.79
28-May-17 EJNAN 143,815 Ras Laffan, Qatar Egypt 04-Jun-17  2.97
29-May-17 FRAIHA 205,950 Ras Laffan, Qatar Not Known  4.25
1-Jun-17 GOLAR CELSIUS 160,000 Ras Laffan, Qatar Not Known 10-Jun-17  3.30
30-May-17 GOLAR GLACIER 162,500 Ras Laffan, Qatar Not Known  3.35
28-May-17 MARAN GAS ASCLEPIUS 142,906 Ras Laffan, Qatar Soroosh, Iran 31-May-17  2.95
30-May-17 RAAHI 138,077 Ras Laffan, Qatar Dahej, India 02-Jun-17  2.85
28-May-17 SK SUMMIT 135,933 Ras Laffan, Qatar Incheon, Korea 12-Jun-17  2.80
1-Jun-17 UMM AL AMAD 206,958 Ras Laffan, Qatar Not Known  4.27
1-Jun-17 UMM BAB 143,708 Ras Laffan, Qatar Port Qasim, Pakistan 05-Jun-17  2.96
1-Jun-17 WILFORCE 155,900 Ras Laffan, Qatar Egypt 06-Jun-17  3.22