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Market Analysis

Crude Oil

• Crude oil price close on Friday at $48.15/BBL, gained 0.61% from Thursday. The rise is due to a Trans Niger Pipeline leakage in Nigeria.
• Crude oil prices remained volatile, primarily on Middle East crises and rose to $50.12/BBL.
• Tuesday crude oil prices moved south based upon EIA weekly data, which depicted crude inventory build up by 3.29 million barrel, and market was expecting a draw down.
• Gasoline inventory recorded a build up of 3.3 million barrels. Crude oil inventory stands at 513.2 million barrels whereas Gasoline stocks are 240.3 million barrels.
• Iran exported 1.1 million BPD to Europe in May 2017, enhancing its share in the regional markets.
• US production still on the rise with oil rigs number at 741, an increase of 8 and gas rigs increase by 3, total rig count stands at 927.
• Overall supply glut situation still prevailing in the market, with Nigerian output increasing.

Natural Gas

• US Henry Hub prices remain weak around $3.00/MMBTU level, primarily on cooler than expected warm weather news from previous week.
• EIA weekly gas data also brought a bearish tone as working storage was reported at 2,631 BCF, a net increase of 106 BCF and market was expecting 98 BCF increase.
• However prices has started improving and closed at $3.04/MMBTU as warm weather forecast for east coast.
• NBP closed at equivalent of $4.59/MMBTU due to weaker demand as temperature is forecasted to be within a pleasant range of 20 ^oC -24 ^oC
• Dutch and French prices remain stable as France is expecting a warm weather for next ten days and European prices impacted on Qatar crises as couple of Europe destined cargoes were diverted to UAE. TTF closed at equivalent of $4.96/MMBTU and TRS France at $4.88/MMBTU on Friday.
• Natural gas supply to UAE and Oman is stable from Qatar via Dolphin pipeline.

Currency

• Dollar gained primarily due to sharp drop in UK Sterling after unexpected UK election results. US DXY rose to 97.28.
• However US Dollar is still vulnerable based upon political instability around Ex-FBI Director ongoing investigation.
• Euro went down at $1.1199, after the news on European Central Bank not decrease interest rates further but warned of weak inflation.
• GBP closed at 1.2751, down after UK Election, where Conservative Party has not been able to secure majority.

Weather

• European weather is remained warmer than seasonal normal and expected to follow the same pattern across Europe for next week with Spain and France in summer season.
• Cooler temperature in Argentina and Brazil, with temperature range for Argentina is 15-20^oC and Brazil around 27^oC for next week.
• Mexico will be around 23 -27^oC and expected to remain same for next ten days.
• Middle east is now in summer season with Egypt 35^oC plus, Kuwait is 45^oC plus, and Dubai temperature around 38-41^oC
• Indian Subcontinent: Pakistan will be around 35 ^oC plus and India will be around 30 as Monsoon started in India.
• Summer season in North East Asia, with temperature around 27 -30^oC in Taiwan, 25-28^oC in Korea, China 27 -35^oC, and Japan is around 25^oC for next week.
• South East Asia already in hot weather with temperature in low 30^oC.
• USA Weather:  Overall weather remained cooler than seasonal limits with east cost is getting warm.

LNG

• LNG prices in Asian market moved up slightly at the start of the week due to prevailing Qatar crises, however closed at lower price level than of Tuesday on Friday. JKM closed at $5.43/MMBTU on Friday, whereas SLNG FOB closed at $5.16/MMBTU on FOB Singapore.
• Japanese LNG buyers paid an average $5.70/MMBtu for spot cargoes contracted in May, unchanged from $5.70/MMBtu in April, As per METI date.
• European gas hub prices remained stable with NBP UK closed on $4.73/MMBTU, TTF at $4.98/MMBTU, PEG & TRS both at equivalent of $4.98/MMBTU and Spanish market in high $5.50/MMBTU level.
• Diversion of cargoes destined for UK has put some pressure on NBP UK prices on the ground of Qatar crises.
• East of Atlantic market based upon Nigerian, Algerian and Norwegian supply region is ranging between $5.10 -$5.40 net back based upon Spanish hub prices.
• US cargoes are still competing with Nigerian cargoes for European markets.
• Golar Glacier, carrying 162,500 CBM of Qatari LNG is anchored near Egypt’s Ain Sukhna LNG import terminal. cargo is owned by Trafigura.
• Adequate supply is available from Australia, Malaysia and Angola. Angola has issued a tender for two cargoes this week.
• Woodside Singapore, has entered into a long-term LNG sale and purchase agreement with Indonesia’s Pertamina for the supply of LNG starting in 2019.
• India’s GPSC cancelled a tender to buy an LNG cargo in July, likely as a result of unsatisfactory price offers
• Pakistan LNG terminal pushed back delivery for LNG cargoes from End September to end October 2017, the tender was for the supply of 4 cargoes in September 2017.
• Turkey ‘s Botas has issued a 19-cargo LNG tender for November 2017 to March 2018 deliveries.
• India’s Torrent Power unveiled demand for 36 LNG cargoes across a three-year period from 2018, and invited suppliers to provide price offers.
• As of Saturday ten LNG vessels are anchored at Ras Laffan outer anchorage with 5 vessels at the port.
• Middle East crises will not impact Qatar LNG export business as UAE and Egypt are the only two countries who may decline Qatari cargoes, however Egypt is buying LNG through traders like Swiss Singapore and Trafigura, which buy LNG on FOB basis from Qatar.
• For vessel loading from Qatar, the freight cost will increase as UAE has closed its Fujairah Port for bunkering operations.
• Royal Dutch Shell has sent a replacement cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States to DUPSUP Terminal, Dubai, the vessel was destined for Kuwait.
• Philippines plans to build a LNG import terminal within 4 years, a time frame derived from its depleting gas field of Malampaya.
• The government of Australia’s Northern Territory on Thursday gave the go-ahead to start building gas pipeline that could help ease a shortage of the commodity in the country’s east.

 

LNG Merchant Activity

• This week 64 vessels carrying 4.15 million tons (211.61 BCF) loaded from various supply centres. An increase of of 0.54 million tons from last week.
• Five vessels carrying 16.24 BCF departed from Nigerian port for European and Asian locations.
• Algeria loaded two vessels carrying 3.06 BCF for Italy.
• Pont Fortin, Trinidad & Tobago loaded three vessels with 9.39BCF.
• Five vessels loaded this week from Sabine Pass, USA with 17.61 BCF destined for South America and European ports.
• Two vessels loaded from Brunei with load of 4.59 BCF.
• Two vessels departed from Russia carrying 6.02 BCF for Korea and Japan.
• 11 vessels left from Australian export terminals of Dampier, Darwin and Gladstone ports for Japan, China and Singapore carrying 33.75 BCF.
• Middle Eastern terminals at Das Island (UAE), Qalhat (Oman) and Ras Lafan (Qatar) loaded 29 vessels carrying 106.27 BCF for Asian destinations. Three vessels destined for Indian ports carrying 10.42 BCF.