LNG Natural Gas Market Update – 22nd – 26th January 2018
- North West Europe: Weather is still cold but warmer than seasonal limits and expected to further ease up next week.
- South West Europe: Mild cold weather with outlook for same weather next week.
- South America: Mild weather in Argentina & warm in the remaining region and the same outlook for next week.
- Middle East: Still enjoying the mild weather.
- South Asia: India and Pakistan mild to cold weather, with the same outlook for next week.
- North East Asia: Mild weather in Taiwan, while severe cold weather is prevailing China, Japan & South Korea with the same outlook for next week.
- South East Asia: Within the seasonal limits of warm weather with the same outlook.
- North America: Mexico still enjoying mild weather, cold weather still prevailing in West, Northern Rockies, Midwest and North East, while mild weather in West & South, colder weather outlook.
- Crude oil prices had a bullish run throughout the week on healthier economic data from IMF, USD weak performance, lower inventory numbers from EIA, geopolitical tension and OPEC plus Russia re-emphasizing on production cut deal.
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised global economic growth forecast on 22nd January 2018 from 3.7% to 3.9%.
- US Dollar Index shed 1.48% since the start of the week; while US Treasury Secretary believes weaker dollar helps US trade.
- A coalition of Nigerian militants listed numbers of oil fields and installation as targets for attacks if the federal government fails to address their issues.
- Inventory in Cushing at 39.4 Million barrels down from 64.55 million barrels on 3rd November 2017 and last year number of 65.4 million barrels, primarily the impact of reduced supply from Keystone pipeline.
- Brent prices closed on $70.52/BBL on Friday from $70.26/BBL on Monday, while WTI closed at $66.14/BBL, with Brent-WTI spread shrinking to $4.38/BBL on Friday.
- Future market closure on Friday for Brent front month at $70.42/BBL, with $69.97/BBL & $69.60/BBL for April & May, whereas WTI front month (Mar) at $66.24/BBL, $66.01/BBL for April & $65.65/BBL for May.
- Brent & WTI futures in backwardation due OPEC supply rationalization & lower inventory in Cushing.
- Baker Hughes oil-rig count reported an increase by 12 and total oil-rigs number at 759.
- US crude production increased by 128,000 Barrel during the week, US Production, Export & Inventory data;
|Million Barrels (MBbl)||19-Jan-2018||12-Jan-2018||05-Jan-2018||29-Dec-17|
- EIA Weekly report reported 1.07 million barrels draw down with stock at 411.6 million barrels on 19th January 2018, against a market expectation of 1.00 million barrels draw down.
- Gasoline inventories at 244.0 million barrels reported on 19th January 2018, 3.10 million barrels build up against a market expectation of 2.50 million barrels buildup.
- Henry Hub gas prices had a bullish run due to prevailing cold weather and colder weather outlook for next week, which also got supported by gas inventory below 5 year historical level.
- EIA reported working gas in storage is 2,296 BCF as of Friday, 19th January 2018, net decrease of 288 BCF, in line with market expectations.
- Baker Hughes reported a decrease in gas rigs by 1 and total number stands at 188.
- Henry Hub closure on Friday was $3.510/MMBTU, whereas the future market closures were $3.520/MMBTU for February, $3.169/MMBTU for March and $2.918/MMBTU for April, depicting strength due to prevailing cold weather.
- North West European gas hub prices remained bearish despite lower gas flows to Germany & UK from Norway due to an ongoing issue at Heimdal filed and St. Fergus terminal. However curve market ended on bullish tone due to higher crude oil prices.
- NBP UK Spot price reduced by 4.51% from last Friday to 47.399 Pence/Thm ($6.71/MMBTU) on Friday, whereas front month February regained on Friday to close at 350Pence/Thm ($6.99/MMBTU).
- TTF Spot price followed NBP with closure at €17.830/MWH ($6.49/MMBTU), 3.80% decrease from last Friday, whereas front month price closed at €17.860/MWH ($6.51/MMBTU) on Friday.
- South West Europe gas hub prices also had a bearish run due to moderate weather along with improved nuclear power & hyrdo based generation in France and Spain.
- Spain hydro-based electricity generation increased from last week 5.34 TWH to 5.39 TWH, still lower number than last year 6.44 TWH.
- French Day Ahead prices: PEG Nord closed at €17.842 MWH ($6.50/MMBTU) whereas TRS France closed at €17.850/MWH ($6.50 MMBTU) on Friday, reduced by $0.20/MMBTU from last week.
- Italian PSV reduced to €19.320/MWH ($7.04/MMBTU) and Iberian Day Ahead prices at €18.940/MWH ($6.90/MMBTU).
- Front month prices remained bearish throughout the week, however, got some support on Friday due to bullish crude prices, with PEG Nord closed at €18.095/MWH ($6.59/MMBTU), TRS at €18.405/MWH ($6.70/MMBTU), PSV at €19.641/MWH ($7.15/MMBTU) on Friday, whereas Iberian forward price last deal was on Thursday at €19.65/MWH ($7.15/MMBTU).:
One standard size Vessel of 150,000 m3 equals to 3.42 BCF. LNG merchant data is developed in collaboration with Clipper Data LLC, due to Thanks Giving holidays, 24th November data will be shared with next week report) 85 vessels carrying 5.49 million tons (263.78 BCF) discharged at various demand centers during the same time period. Disclaimer: This is a personal analysis based on public information and should not be used for buying and selling of commodities. Source: SGX LNG Index Group, EIA, GIE, and Reuters.
BCFD Norwegian Gas Flow Nord Stream Germany France Belgium UK OPAL NEL 6th – 12th January 2018 3.98 1.80 1.57 4.83 3.73 2.24 13th – 19th January 2018 3.83 1.79 1.55 4.57 3.75 2.23
Weekly European Gas and LNG quantities at Storage and LNG terminals (BCF)
Quantity in BC 26-Jan-18 19-Jan-18 12-Jan-18 05-Jan-18 Belgium Gas 8.18 9.46 10.34 12.47 LNG 2.46 2.97 3.48 1.38 Total 10.64 12.44 13.82 13.85 Capacity Utilization 28% 32% 36% 36% France Gas 172.61 191.95 212.06 229.81 LNG 19.33 16.80 16.99 19.39 Total 191.93 208.75 229.05 249.19 Capacity Utilization 39% 43% 47% 51% Germany Gas 435.77 457.57 491.25 518.29 LNG – – – – Total 435.77 457.57 491.25 518.29 Capacity Utilization 55% 58% 62% 65% Greece Gas – – – – LNG 2.39 2.23 1.30 2.59 Total 2.39 2.23 1.30 2.59 Capacity Utilization 89% 83% 48% 96% Italy Gas 396.47 423.54 451.37 472.50 LNG 5.52 4.95 5.89 6.56 Total 401.99 428.49 457.26 479.06 Capacity Utilization 60% 64% 68% 72% Lithuania Gas – – – – LNG 2.16 2.58 2.76 2.79 Total 2.16 2.58 2.76 2.79 Capacity Utilization 63% 75% 80% 81% Netherlands Gas 209.83 230.37 253.81 276.97 LNG 3.87 4.15 4.27 4.54 Total 213.70 234.52 258.08 281.52 Capacity Utilization 47% 52% 57% 62% Poland Gas 71.90 77.01 82.73 86.59 LNG 4.40 5.05 5.74 2.50 Total 76.31 82.06 88.46 89.09 Capacity Utilization 64% 68% 74% 74% Portugal Gas 6.32 6.16 6.23 6.94 LNG 5.25 7.29 7.03 6.87 Total 11.57 13.45 13.26 13.81 Capacity Utilization 57% 66% 66% 68% Spain Gas 73.06 73.47 74.29 75.36 LNG 31.48 34.06 37.56 32.12 Total 104.54 107.53 111.85 107.48 Capacity Utilization 59% 61% 63% 61% UK Gas 24.48 24.90 26.06 27.37 LNG 16.54 18.35 20.37 25.75 Total 41.02 43.26 46.42 53.12 Capacity Utilization 61% 64% 69% 79%
LNG Price Assessment and Natural Gas 15th – 26th January 2018
LNG Trade Flows (20th – 26th January 2018)
SUPPLY – TRADE FLOWS
DEMAND – TRADE FLOWS
One standard size Vessel of 150,000 m3 equals to 3.42 BCF.
LNG merchant data is developed in collaboration with Clipper Data LLC, due to Thanks Giving holidays, 24th November data will be shared with next week report)
85 vessels carrying 5.49 million tons (263.78 BCF) discharged at various demand centers during the same time period.
Disclaimer: This is a personal analysis based on public information and should not be used for buying and selling of commodities. Source: SGX LNG Index Group, EIA, GIE, and Reuters.