Market Analysis
Crude Oil
- Brent closed at $53.61/bbl, increase by 5.34% from last Friday closing price.
- Market remained bullish primarily due to news of Saudi Arabia and Russia on extending the production cut by 9 months.
- As per BHI, US rig count increase by 8 and now stand at 901, with oil rigs standing at 720, increase by 8.
- 18th consecutive week for oil rig number increase, which means increase in production from US.
- In our opinion extending production cut may be short lived due to US production increase, market may again expect deeper cut for crude price sustainability.
- EIA recorded a draw of 1.75 million barrels, a smaller draw. Overall inventories declined for the 6th successive week to the lowest level for 10 weeks.
Natural Gas
- Henry Hub prices moved south by 4.79% during the week.
- Price plunged on Tuesday as investor responded to updated mild weather forecast.
- EIA reported natural gas supplies increased by 65 BCD whereas market was expecting an increase of 61 BCF.
- Limited demand is expected in US due to mild temperature.
- European hub gas prices have made marginal gains, however NBP gained 5.79% on strong demand.
- Germany awarded 870 MW on onshore wind capacity with average price of Euro Cents 5.71/KWH
Currency
- US dollar face pressure on political news and DXY, The US Dollar Index DXY closed at 97.12, down by 0.78%.
- Coming week is important for Dollar as political uncertainty still hovering in US.
- Euro USD soared to $1.119 up by 1.87% from Monday when it closed at $1.098.
- GBP rose by 0.76% since Monday and closed at $1.301 on Friday.
Weather
- Spring season in full swing in North America.
- Asia has entered into summer season, where Indian Subcontinent is ranging between 35o – 40o
- India will be entering Monsoon by end May 2017.
- South East Asia and North East Asia around 25o – 30o
- Summer in Middle East with temperature soaring to high 30o
- Europe temperature remained mild from 15o-20oC, however cold weather in UK, Norway around 10o-15oC.
LNG
- LNG prices remain stable around $5.50/MMBTU mark throughout the week in Asian markets of Japan, Korea and Taiwan.
- Prices in India facing pressure as inventories are high, along with depressed coal prices and arrival of Monsoon season, which will restrict vessel arrival at Dabhol terminal.
- FOB Singapore remained around $5.30/MMBTU level.
- US gulf cost prices remain at $4.70/MMBTU level based upon $5.70/MMBTU Asian market prices.
- Price in North West Europe was offered at discount to NBP UK.
- Whereas in SW Europe prices remained at low $5.00/MMBTU level corresponding to Hub prices increase, TRS France increased by 13 cents since Monday and MIBGas increase by 17 cents.
- US-China LNG trade discussion still considered as bargaining tool by China for Middle Eastern suppliers.
- South Korea new president Moon Jae-in is focused on reducing reliance on coal and nuclear power generation, which constitutes 70% of total power generation.
- BP will be supplying 16 LNG cargoes annually to PLN from Tangguh project from 2020.
- Australian GLNG shut a train for a month, the eighth outage in last 14 months.
- Japan, Korea and Taiwan demand is increasing for summer re-stocking.
- Gazprom signed MOU with two Chinese companies CNPC and CHG at Belt and road Forum in Beijing focusing on joining effort in gas sector and power generation.
- China gas consumption increased to 16.9 BCM in April 2017, with first 4 months total consumption at 80.5 BCM, portraying Chinese commitment on climate control
LNG Merchant Activity
- This week 40 vessels carrying 2.51 million tons (131.51 BCF) loaded from various supply centres. A decrease by 27% week on week basis.
- Six vessels carrying 20.97 BCF departed from Nigerian port for European and Indian ports.
- One vessel left from Equatorial Guinea carrying 3.20 BCF.
- Pont Fortin, Trinidad & Tobago loaded three vessels with 8.43 BCF.
- 3 vessels loaded this week from Sabine Pass, USA with 9.88 BCF.
- Two vessels departed from Russia carrying 5.98 BCF.
- 10 vessels left from Australian export terminals at Darwin, Dampier and Gladstone ports for Japan, China and Singapore carrying 30.61 BCF.
- Middle Eastern terminals at Das Island (UAE), Qalhat (Oman) and Ras Lafan (Qatar) loaded 13 vessels carrying 44.37 BCF for Asian destinations.
Departure Date | Vessel Name | Capacity(CBM) | Loading Port | Discharge Port | ETA Discharge Port |
17-May-17 | TRINITY ARROW | 152,655 | Bonny, Nigeria | Sagunto, Spain | |
13-May-17 | LNG ABUJA II | 170,000 | Bonny, Nigeria | Hazira, India | |
14-May-17 | GASLOG GLASGOW | 232,000 | Bonny, Nigeria | Indian Ocean | 16-Jun-17 |
16-May-17 | PSKOV | 170,200 | Bonny, Nigeria | Bicton Port, Australia | 03-Jun-17 |
17-May-17 | LNG ONDO | 148,748 | Bonny, Nigeria | Barcelona, Spain | 27-May-17 |
18-May-17 | LNG RIVER ORASHI | 142,988 | Bonny, Nigeria | Not Known | |
16-May-17 | SOLARIS | 154,948 | Punta Europa, Africa | 24-May-17 | |
14-May-17 | BW GDF SUEZ EVERETT | 138,028 | Point Fortin, Trinidad | ||
16-May-17 | CASTILLO DE VILLALBA | 135,420 | Point Fortin, Trinidad | Not Known | |
18-May-17 | GALLINA | 135,269 | Point Fortin, Trinidad | ||
16-May-17 | GASLOG SHANGHAI | 154,948 | Sabine Pass, USA | Altamira, Mexico | 19-May-17 |
17-May-17 | GOLAR SNOW | 160,000 | Sabine Pass, USA | Not Known | |
19-May-17 | MARAN GAS ALEXANDRIA | 164,000 | Sabine Pass, USA | Atlantic Ocean | 14-Jun-17 |
18-May-17 | HANJIN PYEONG TAEK | 130,366 | Bontang, Indonesia | Pyeongtaek, Korea | 24-May-17 |
15-May-17 | K.JASMINE | 142,961 | Prigorodnoye, Russia | Okpo, Korea | 19-May-17 |
17-May-17 | OB RIVER | 146,791 | Prigorodnoye, Russia | Niagoya, Japan | 21-May-17 |
16-May-17 | STENA BLUE SKY | 142,988 | Dampier, Australia | Japan | 27-May-17 |
17-May-17 | LNG EBISU | 147,546 | Dampier, Australia | Himeji, Japan | 29-May-17 |
16-May-17 | STENA BLUE SKY | 142,988 | Dampier, Australia | Japan | 27-May-17 |
18-May-17 | DAPENG SUN | 147,200 | Dampier, Australia | Dafeng, China | 25-May-17 |
19-May-17 | NORTHWEST SANDERLING | 125,452 | Dampier, Australia | Pacific Ocean | 29-May-17 |
19-May-17 | WOODSIDE ROGERS | 159,800 | Dampier, Australia | Pacific Ocean | 30-May-17 |
15-May-17 | GASLOG SYDNEY | 154,948 | Gladstone, Australia | Zhenjiang, China | 01-Jun-17 |
15-May-17 | GASLOG SAVANNAH | 154,948 | Gladstone, Australia | 25-May-17 | |
17-May-17 | LNG SATURN | 153,000 | Gladstone, Australia | Takamatsu, Japan | 26-May-17 |
19-May-17 | LENA RIVER | 154,880 | Gladstone, Australia | Singapore | 30-May-17 |
18-May-17 | AAMIRA | 260,912 | Milford Haven, UK | Port Saeed, Egypt | |
16-May-17 | ISH | 137,512 | Das, UAE | Kisarazu, Japan | 3-Jun-17 |
15-May-17 | IBRA LNG | 145,951 | Qalhat, Oman | UAE | 16-May-17 |
19-May-17 | IBRI LNG | 145,173 | Qalhat, Oman | Japan | 02-Jun-17 |
20-May-17 | AL RAYYAN | 134,671 | Ras Laffan, Qatar | UAE | 21-May-17 |
16-May-17 | SK SUPREME | 136,320 | Ras Laffan, Qatar | Tyongeong, Korea | 31-May-17 |
16-May-17 | LUSAIL | 142,808 | Ras Laffan, Qatar | Rovinj, Croatia | 27-May-17 |
16-May-17 | FRAIHA | 205,950 | Ras Laffan, Qatar | Dahej, India | 22-May-17 |
16-May-17 | MOZAH | 261,988 | Ras Laffan, Qatar | Europe | |
17-May-17 | MURWAB | 205,971 | Ras Laffan, Qatar | Dahej, India | 24-Jun-17 |
18-May-17 | MARAN GAS ASCLEPIUS | 142,906 | Ras Laffan, Qatar | Indian Ocean | 21-May-17 |
18-May-17 | AL DAAYEN | 148,853 | Ras Laffan, Qatar | Egypt | 26-May-17 |
18-May-17 | AL BIDDA | 135,466 | Ras Laffan, Qatar | Japan | 02-Jun-17 |
19-May-17 | UMM AL AMAD | 206,958 | Ras Laffan, Qatar | Hazira, India | 22-May-17 |