Archives for Commodities

Oil and Gold Models workshop – Bangkok, 14 November 2011

Oil and Gold Models – An introduction to risk, models and valuation – Bangkok, 14th November, 2011

Welcome to the resource page for attendees of the Wealth Management’s Oil and Gold workshop conducted at the Landmark hotel in Bangkok, Thailand on 14th November 2011 for its clients, partners and well wishers.

The workshop focused…

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Selling Treasury Derivative products: Estimating client exposure to crude oil price volatility

Selling Treasury & Derivative Products: The Petrochemical Case Study: Estimating client exposure to crude oil price volatility

This is the transcript from the video recording for session three of selling treasury products where we use the case study of an oil refinery to show how to translate impact of crude oil price volatility into P&L and margin impact. This impact forms the basis for exposure estimation used to suggest…

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Cross selling treasury products – a framework for commodities trading for corporate clients

Cross selling treasury products: A framework for pitching commodity trading ideas to customers

Cross Selling Treasury Products video course is now live for purchase.

Price volatility in crude oil, gold, silver, cotton, sugarcane, wheat and cereals has created an unprecedented opportunity for corporate relationship managers to cross sell treasury products to their institutional, trading, manufacturing and high net worth customers. We present below a framework for empowering client…

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Commodity Trading Course Package

By the end of the two day workshop participants will be able to:

a)      Appreciate the linkage between commodity markets (precious metals, crude oil), currencies and rates

b)      Trace the impact of monetary policy announcements on commodity markets

c)       Explain trading strategies using futures, options and exotic products

d)      Understand trading triggers

e)      Derive risk limits for counterparty exposures

For a short review…

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Crude Oil Mispricing Model – Commodity Prices and a study in Trailing Correlations

The Crude Oil Mispricing model, presented in MS Excel worksheet format, assesses what the price of crude oil should have been if the historical relationship between crude oil and a given commodity were to have continued into the future. Vice versa, what would the price of a given commodity be if the average correlation between crude oil and a given commodity was maintained over the analysis period?

A comparative study…

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Relative Gold Price Model – Forecasting the price of gold

The relative gold price model, presented in MS Excel worksheet format, assesses the relative value of Gold against that of other commodities. It is used to:

Highlight trends in the relationships between gold and a given commodity Identify points when relations broke-down or when a new “normal” was created. This may be due to new drivers influencing one or both commodities.

The data used in the analysis is spot price data for…

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Understanding Crude Oil. A model for dissecting crude oil

Here is the model we used last year to dissect the projected price behavior of oil. This was a fundamentals driven model that examined supply and demand gap, future supply sources and shocks, core demand growth drivers and relative value effects. The same approach was used later this year in building our fundamentals driven model for gold price forecast.

Our summarized outlook was simple. Oil demand…

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